[Case Study] - Hong Kong Darts Bar Sees 53.7% Stockout Rate Reduction with AI system
A Hong Kong darts bar where beer makes up 70% of revenue switched from manual forecasting to AI after validating it with Knotest. An eight-week A/B test cut stockouts by 53.7%, reduced overstock by 37.1%, and halved planning time. Manager Chan: “Now we’re not just guessing. We know what’s coming.”
For a Hong Kong darts bar where beer makes up 70 per cent of revenue, inventory planning used to be a game of experience — and luck.
“You check last week’s sales, see if there’s a match or holiday coming up, and make a call,” said manager Chan. “Sometimes you get it right. When you’re wrong, you really feel it — empty shelves when people are ready to buy.”
As the business grew, the bar wanted to move from manual forecasting to AI, but they needed proof before making the switch. They turned to Knotest, a platform developed by Hephaknot.
“We wanted hard evidence,” Chan said.
First, they ran a model performance test on Knotest, comparing the AI’s Accuracy, F1 and AUROC against their historical manual predictions. The model passed. Then came an eight-week A/B Business Impact Assessment on six top Cat A beers, with Group A using manual forecasting and Group B the AI system, rotating every two weeks.
The results spoke for themselves:
- Stockout Rate: −53.7%
- Overstock Rate: −37.1%
- Inventory Turnover: +25.0%
- Monthly Holding Costs: −22.5%
- Planning Time:−50.0%
- Stockout Complaints:−58.1%
“Once you see numbers like that, it’s not really a debate,” Chan said. “You know what you’re getting. Now we’re not just guessing. We know what’s coming.”